Economic Monitor Moldova
Moldova’s GDP declined by 5.9% yoy in 2022 reflecting both the weak agricultural year due to bad weather and the various impacts of the war in neighbouring Ukraine. Moldova was affected by a massive increase in inflation to 28.7% on average due to high-er energy and food prices as well as overall political insecurity in the context of the war, which inhibited investment. The exchange rate of the Moldovan Leu depreciated only moderately by 7.4% against the US dollar despite high inflation, which constituted a significant real appreciation of 10%. As a result, the competitiveness of Moldovan products was negatively affected. For 2023, the outlook is moderately positive with an expected GDP growth of 2% and inflation has started to slow down. However, significant downside risks persist as the war in Ukraine continues.
Overview
» Considerable drop in GDP of 5.9% in 2022; effects of war in UKR and poor harvest
as key drivers of contraction
» 2023 forecast: moderate outlook of 2% GDP growth, but with considerable
downside risks
» Inflation remains high (Mar–23: 21.98%), but has started on a downward trend
» Moldovan Leu depreciated by 7.4% vs the US dollar in 2022; moderate depreciation
considering the very high inflation; implication: significant real appreciation
» Increased budget deficit of 4.2% of GDP in 2022 and further increase to 6% in 2023
planned amid higher social spending, particularly in response to the energy crisis
» Strong increase in exports (37.9%) and imports (28.5%) in 2022; partly due to
record harvest in 2021, but also large re–exports to/from UKR
Special issue
» Export potential of fruits. Further expansion of fruits exports to EU possible, but
diversification to new markets also needed
