Economic Monitor Moldova
After two years of stagnation, the Moldovan GDP grew by 2.4% in 2025, driven by investment and agriculture. This growth was also supported in 2026 by investment and structural reforms under the Growth Plan (GP).
WA 23 | March 2026
Overview
- After two years of stagnation, GDP grew by 2.4% in 2025, driven by investment and agriculture; investment increased by 22% yoyand contributed 4.6pp to growth; “investment-led growth”
- In 2026, growth to be supported by investment and structural reforms under the Growth Plan; forecasts vary between 2.3% and 3.0%
- Inflation (Feb-26: 5.1%) is back in the tolerance range of the National Bank
- Budget deficit amounted to 4.0% of GDP in 2025 and is planned to go up to 5.7% of GDP; this reflects an increase in capital spendings under the Growth Plan (ca. 4.3% of GDP)
- Exchange rate remains stable vs euro and FX reserves are comfortable (5 months of imports)
- While this suggests a stable external situation, the current account deficit is very high; 2024: 17% and 9M2025: 19% of GDP
- In our view, these high numbers are linked to a vast underestimation of cash remittances; using a higher estimation, the current account deficit would be in the single-digit realm (as % of GDP)
- FDI inflows amounted to 2.6%of GDP in 9M2025, mainly based on reinvested earnings rather than new investment; FDI attraction remains weak
Special topic
Demographics. Population declined by 260 thsd. (10%) between 2020 and 2025; however, only a minor share of UKR refugees counted as MDA residents
