Economic Monitor Kazakhstan
The war in Ukraine so far has had not the expected negative impact on the Kazakh economy; rising oil prices even supported economic growth and exports. High inflation since the Corona pandemic remains a problem, prompting the Central Bank of Kazakhstan to significantly increase the key interest rate.
WA 1 | October 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- In 2022, GDP growth is estimated at 2.5%; growth will accelerate to 4.4% in 2023
- The war in UKR and Western sanctions against RUS did not have the expected negative impact on the KAZ economy so far, instead higher energy prices support exports and GDP
- Inflation at 18.8% in Oct-22, mainly due to rising food prices, is an issue for the economy and population
- Volatile exchange rate since start of war in UKR, increased central bank intervention, also restriction of capital movements
- Exports up 56% in 6M2022, imports up 15%
- Current account surplus of 3% of GDP expected due to high oil prices
- Budget deficit of 5.0% of GDP in 2021; lower deficit of 2% in 2022 expected due to high oil revenues; public debt low at about 23% of GDP
Special topics
- Energy sector. Key data, energy export and dominance of RUS in export routes
- Oil export via RUS. Current dispute and risks
- Mineral extraction. Supplier for global digital and energy transformation
