Economic Monitor Belarus
After strong economic growth in 2024, a slowdown is expected this year. Inflation remains high and the numbers are likely to exceed the official figures reported.
WA 21 | Mai 2025
Overview
- After GDP growth of 4.0% in 2024, a slowdown is expected for 2025: IMF forecast at 2.8%
- Forecast range for 2026 remains wide: high uncertainty
- Main driver is private consumption, supported by expansionary monetary policy; export recovery remains absent
- Inflation driven by real wage growth due to labour shortages but distorted by price controls. Estimates place actual inflation at around 10%, twice the officially reported rate
- Positive budget balance, as there are hardly any options to take on loans; high financial dependence on RUS
- Foreign trade increasingly concentrated on CIS (especially RUS) exports stagnate while imports grow
- Bilateral trade with Germany collapsed at the beginning of 2025
Special topic
- Energy Sector. Near-total dependence on fuel imports from Russia; renewable energies play hardly any role in the power system. Growing importance of nuclear power (NPP)
