Economic Monitor Belarus
WA 20 | November 2024
Overview
- Economic growth by 4.5% yoy in 9M2024 mainly driven by private consumption and strong manufacturing growth. Collapse of ICT sector came to a halt and there are signals of moderate growth of the sector for 2024
- Growth of around 4% expected for this year, but slowdown to around 2% for 2025 expected. However, high uncertainty, as strongly dependent on developments in Russia
- Inflation, contained by price controls and exchange rate stabilisation, runs at around 6%
- Positive fiscal balance due to high growth and subsidies from Russia, both highly dependent on policies in Russia
- BLR trade almost exclusively re-routed to and via RUS; growing dependence on RUS logistical network
Special issues
- Dependence on Russia. Political isolation leads to an increasing dependence on Russia in trade, energy and finance
- Banking sector. Sanctions and higher interest rates accelerate trends towards de-dollarization
- Private sector development. Relocation of dynamic sectors of the economy damage Belarusian economy, but may be an asset in the future
