Economic Monitor Belarus
The Belarusian economy grew by 3.9% last year, driven mainly by investment and consumption growth. However, the ICT sector slumped. Growth is expected to slow this year and next. Sanctions continue to weigh on the economy, with trade activity focused almost exclusively on Russia. High inflation has been contained through price controls and exchange rate stabilisation.
WA 19 | May 2024
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- Economic growth by 3.9% yoy in 2023 due to growth in capital investment and a rebound in private consumption. Collapsing ICT sector (-14.2% yoy) slowed down GDP in 2023
- Growth slowdown to 2.4% yoy (2024) and 1.1% yoy (2025) expected. Reason: continued
dependence on fiscal and monetary stimuli instead of sustainable growth factors - Inflation contained by price controls and exchange rate stabilisation (12.8% yoy in 2022; 5.8% yoy in 2023); substitution of Western goods with alternatives
- Declining revenues and reduced access to int. loans put pressure on public finances; default
declared by int. rating agencies; ratings have been withdrawn due to insufficient data - Unbalanced trade in 2023; BLR trade almost exclusively re-routed to and via RUS; growing
dependence on RUS logistical network
Special issues
- Belarusian car market. Far-reaching restructuring; dominance of Chinese vehicles, growing domestic car production and an increase in imports from the EU
- IT industry. Ongoing deterioration of the former growth engine with the outflow of IT professionals stabilising
