Economic Monitor Armenia
The war in Ukraine has had only a limited effect on the Armenian economy. After an initial downward correction, macroeconomic forecasts were again revised upward. The main positive shock is the significant influx of migrants and tourists from Russia, which in turn contributes positively to consumption. At the same time, however, this also poses negative challenges for inflation and social policy. GET currently forecasts a real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2022.
WA 08 | August 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- Overall limited impact of the war in Ukraine on Armenia. After an initial downward correction, macroeconomic forecasts revised upwards again
- Real GDP expected to grow by 4.6% in 2022; mainly on the back of strong consumption
- Significant inflow of migrants and tourists from Russia accelerates aggregate demand. At the same time: challenge to control negative consequences of inflow
- Inflation still above CBA target, but slowed down to 9.3% in Jul-22
- Strong appreciation of the dram against the US dollar (15.2%) since the start of the war in UKR is easing the inflationary pressure
- Budget deficit expected at 2.1% of GDP in 2022; slight reduction of public debt to 58.4% of GDP. Fiscal consolidation on the back of good economic performance
- Strong exports (6M2022: +36.3% yoy) and even stronger imports (+48.7% yoy); current account deficit expected at 5.2% of GDP in 2022
Special Topics
- Inflow of people from RUS. Estimation of economic impact based on own survey
- Trade normalisation with Turkey. Positive impact on Armenian trade
- Energy. High import dependency on RUS, but ambitious plans for renewable energies
- GDP forecast. Revised forecast of the GET Macro Model
