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Economic Monitor Armenia

The Armenian economy is recovering from the fallout of the Corona pandemic. Higher remittances as well as the prospects of political stability after a clear election result stimulate consumption.

  • Armenia
WA 06 | November 2021
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • Confidence has increased after clear outcome of parliamentary elections
  • GDP to grow by 5.5% in 2021; significant recovery compared to 2020
  • Drivers: higher remittances and increased political stability support consumption
  • Budget deficit at 3.7% and public debt to remain stable at 63% of GDP in 2021; fiscal consolidation in 2022 likely
  • Low current account deficit in 2020 and 2021
  • Good performance of exports of goods on the back of high metal prices in 2021, but exports of services (esp. tourism inflows) remain weak
  • Slow recovery of FDI after decline by more than half in 2020
  • Issuance of USD 750 m Eurobond secures external sustainability for the time being
  • Depreciation of Dram amid high uncertainty in Nov2020-Apr2021, followed by recent appreciation; Dram back to pre-crisis level
  • Hikes in CBA’s policy rate due to increased inflation and inflation expectations

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