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Economic Monitor Armenia

The Armenian economy recovers on the back of higher consumption and a partial recovery of tourism inflows. Growth expectations for 2022/2023 remain positive.

  • Armenia
WA 07 | February 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • GDP grew by 5.6% in 2021 on the back of higher consumption and partial recovery of tourism inflows; for 2022, GDP forecast to grow by 4.8%
  • Budget deficit at 4.7% of GDP in 2021 and forecast to decrease to 3.1% in 2022
  • Public debt estimated to remain stable at 61.5% of GDP in 2021 and 61.6% in 2022
  • Current account deficit remains low; slight increase to 3.5% of GDP in 2022 expected
  • Decent performance of goods exports due to high metal prices; exports of services (esp. tourism) partially recovered in 2021; positive outlook for exports
  • Recovery of FDI in 2021; further increase in 2022/2023 expected
  • Issuance of USD 750 m Eurobond secures external sustainability for the time being
  • Exchange rate of national currency Dram back to pre-crisis level
  • Inflation is expected to moderate in 2022, after climbing to 9.6% in Nov-21

Topics

  • GDP forecast. GET Macro Model
  • Export promotion. Measures for the Armenian textile sector
  • E-procurement. Best practices for e-procurement reform
  • Russia-Ukraine conflict. Effects on Armenia and regional effects

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