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Economic Monitor Armenia

The boom generated by migration from Russia to Armenia is starting to slow down this year. Next year, GDP growth will be again near the long-term growth path. Inflation dynamics have weakened significantly, the Armenian dram remains stable against the US dollar and has appreciated strongly against the Russian rouble. The fiscal situation is stable.

  • Armenia
WA 10 | September 2023
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
  • 2023: real GDP growth projected at 5.5% by the IMF; positive effect related to influx of migrants from RUS begin to fade out
  • 2024: slight slowdown to 5.0%; real GDP growth converges towards its potential
  • Inflation decreased significantly and is expected to be as low as 0.4% at the end of 2023; monetary policy continues to be tight
  • Armenian dram was stable against the US dollar (7M2023: slight appreciation by 2%), while it strengthened significantly against the weak Russian ruble (29% appreciation)
  • Higher budget deficit (2.9% of GDP) and public debt (49.9% of GDP) in 2023; but fiscal position remains stable
  • 7M2023: goods exports increased by 62%, while imports grew by 63%; trade dynamics continue to be dominated by re-export business
Special issues
  • Green hydrogen. Production of green hydrogen in ARM could be cost-competitive, but absence of export infrastructure and domestic use cases weakens the case for production
  • Economic exposure to Russia. ARM exposure to RUS is traditionally high, but did not further increase in the course of 2022

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