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Economic Monitor Armenia

The Russian migration to Armenia in wake of the war in Ukraine has fuelled a substantial economic upsing. Russian migrants are drivers of consumption and quite often also have a background in IT, which is welcome news, if Armenia can convince the freshly arrived to remain in the country for a longer period of time.

  • Armenia
WA 09 | February 2023
Labour Market and Migration
  •  High real GDP growth of 12.6% in 2022; influx of approx. 55,000 people from RUS one of the main growth drivers
  • 2023 forecast: slowdown to 4.5%, as main part of positive relocation shock in 2022
  • Inflation remains elevated (Jan-23: 8.1%), but return to target likely in 2023 due to
    restrictive monetary policy by the Central Bank of Armenia
  •  Strong appreciation of dram against the US dollar (15.7%) in H1 2022, followed by
    moderate appreciation (3.5%) in H2 2022
  •  Significant improvement of fiscal conditions; strong economic growth and
    appreciation to reduce public debt towards its threshold (2023: 50% of GDP)
  •  Large increase in exports (77.7%) and imports (63.5%) in 2022; higher imports on
    the back of strong economy and appreciation, but also due to re-exports to RUS
Special issues
  •  Influx of people from RUS. Results of new survey and economic implications
  •  IT sector. Tapping the potential related to the inflow of foreign It talent
  • Trade. Estimation of re-exports to RUS

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