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Economic Monitor

The Economic Monitor, published every six months, provides a concise overview of the overall economic situation. Apart from general macroeconomic trends, current economic policy issues are also covered.

  • Economic Monitor Ukraine

    WA 19 | February 2023

    After a sharp decline in GDP in 2022, the economy experiences moderate growth of 5.2% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, mainly driven by rising consumption. Despite a current account deficit and growing trade deficits, foreign exchange reserves improve (2023: USD 40.5bn) and inflation falls to 5.1%. Nevertheless, massive budget deficits and rising public debt remain, making debt restructuring necessary, as well as a dependence on foreign financing. The new Black Sea corridor offers opportunities for exports, while regional disparities and labour market challenges due to migration require special attention.

  • Economic Monitor Moldova

    WA 19 | Februar 2024

    The Moldovan economy is showing signs of recovery following the recession in 2022. Economic growth of 2.0% is forecasted for 2023, driven by the agricultural sector. In 2024, growth could increase to 3.9%, due to rising private consumption.
    Despite a fall in the inflation rate to 4.2% by the end of 2023 and a lower budget deficit, challenges remain due to currency appreciation and a lack of growth stimulus.
    Trade with Ukraine has declined, while exports of services have increased. Trade relations with the EU, which focus on plums and pork, and a possible switch from USD to EUR as the reference currency could offer new economic opportunities.

  • Economic Monitor Georgia

    WA 18 | October 2023

    Economic growth in Georgia remains strong, but is slowly approaching long-term potential growth again. The boom, which was fueled in particular by the influx of Russian immigrants, is slowing down. The value of the lari against the US dollar stabilized last year after a strong appreciation in 2022, inflation is falling, monetary policy is slowly becoming looser and trade is developing strongly, particularly due to re-exports. The high budget deficit has been reduced. Not all the potential benefits of the DCFTA with the EU has been exploited already.

  • Economic Monitor Ukraine

    WA 18 | November 2023

    After the sharp decline following the Russian attack last year, moderate positive growth rates of 4.1% and 5.5% can be expected again for 2023 and 2024. However, the country’s economic situation remains difficult overall – as expected – and much depends on the continued support of Ukraine’s international partners.

     

  • Economic Monitor Belarus

    WA 18 | November 2023

    After a strong recession in 2022, the Belarusian economy grew by 3.5% in 9M2023. Due to the declining base effect and low growth potential, GET expects a slowdown in the growth pace (2.0% in 2023), which will be followed by economic stagnation (0.1% in 2024). Inflation is currently very low (2.0% in Sep-23), but the medium-term outlook is uncertain as the current low rate depends on price controls. Foreign trade is characterised by increasing dependence on Russia.

  • Economic Monitor Armenia

    WA 10 | September 2023

    The boom generated by migration from Russia to Armenia is starting to slow down this year. Next year, GDP growth will be again near the long-term growth path. Inflation dynamics have weakened significantly, the Armenian dram remains stable against the US dollar and has appreciated strongly against the Russian rouble. The fiscal situation is stable.

  • Economic Monitor Kosovo

    WA 5 | August 2023

    Following strong, tourism-driven service exports and buffering effects of state subsidies and remittances on private consumption, Kosovo’s economic grew at a rate of 3.5% in 2022. Negative influences such as low public investment activities and a negative terms of trade shock driven by surging prices for imported commodities could thus be more than outbalanced. For 2023, economic growth is forecasted to be even higher with a predicted rate of 3.8%, however, driven by very different factors than in 2022 – especially a predicted surge in public consumption and investment after stalling in 2022 is predicted to play a key role to this end. In addition, inflation is expected to ease over the year with sharp decreases already observable in the first months of 2023.