Economic Monitor

Kosovo’s economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, driven by private consumption and public investment. Inflation is down to 2.2% (July 2024), with competitive wages at an average of 570 EUR. The current account deficit fell to 7.7% of GDP, with remittances remaining crucial at nearly 14% of GDP. Foreign direct investment reached a record 8.8% of GDP in 2023, but further diversification is needed. The draft National Energy and Climate Plan highlights Kosovo’s ambitious energy and climate goals.

The Ukrainian economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace: 5.3% in 2023, 3.6% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Consumption and investment are driving growth, but are being held back by damage to energy infrastructure and military mobilisation. Inflation is rising and the current account deficit is widening. The fiscal situation remains tight, with high public debt and insufficient international aid. The energy sector is severely damaged, leading to supply shortages and possible blackouts.

Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 5.1% in 2023, driven by investments, though a slowdown to 3.5% is expected in 2024 due to maintenance of key oil fields. Inflation dropped to 8.4% by August 2024, supported by lower food and commodity prices. Despite inflation, the Tenge appreciated against the dollar, and international reserves remain high. The current account deficit reflects a reliance on oil prices.

Full Monitor available in German

Last year, the Uzbek economy grew by a strong 6.0%, driven by rising government spending and investment. Solid growth of 5.4% is expected for the current year. The inflation rate in August 2024 was a relatively high 10.5%, which was driven by the increase in energy tariffs for households. The budget deficit and current account deficit were also elevated at 5.5% of GDP and 8.6% of GDP respectively in 2023, but are expected to decline this year.

-In German-

After a severe recession in 2022, Moldova’s GDP grew by only 0.7% in 2023 and is expected to increase by a moderate 2.6% in 2024. Key issues include a lack of growth drivers, an overvalued leu affecting competitiveness, and a high budget deficit. Although inflation has stabilized, public investment challenges persist, and trade normalizes. ICT exports show positive momentum.