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Economic Monitor

The Economic Monitor, published every six months, provides a concise overview of the overall economic situation. Apart from general macroeconomic trends, current economic policy issues are also covered.

  • Economic Monitor Belarus

    WA 19 | May 2024

    The Belarusian economy grew by 3.9% last year, driven mainly by investment and consumption growth. However, the ICT sector slumped. Growth is expected to slow this year and next. Sanctions continue to weigh on the economy, with trade activity focused almost exclusively on Russia. High inflation has been contained through price controls and exchange rate stabilisation.

  • Economic Monitor Kazakhstan

    WA 3 | February 2024

    In German

    Im laufenden Jahr wird Kasachstan um voraussichtlich 4,6% wachsen, für das kommende Jahr werden ähnliche Wachstumsraten erwartet. Der inländische Konsum und Investitionen sind hierbei die Haupttreiber, wobei alle Sektoren mit Ausnahme der Landwirtschaft ein Wachstum verzeichnen können. Die hohe Inflation ging bis Ende des vergangenen Jahres auf 10,1% zurück und wird in den kommenden Jahren voraussichtlich weiter sinken. Trotz hoher Inflation wertete der kasachische Tenge nur um 4% ggü. dem US-Dollar ab (Stand Jan-23 ggü. Jan-22). Der fallende Ölpreis setzte den Exporten zu, obwohl die Exportmenge wuchs. Das Haushaltsdefizit ist sehr gering, ebenso die öffentliche Verschuldung.

  • Economic Monitor Kosovo

    WA 06 | March 2024

    Kosovo’s economy grew by 3.3% in 2023, driven by public spending and private consumption, and is expected to stabilize at around 4% in coming years. Inflation, which peaked at 11.6% in 2022, declined to 5% in 2023 and is expected to continue declining in 2024. Despite increased imports due to strong public spending and high FDI-inflows, the current account deficit narrowed to 7.9% of GDP. The budget deficit remained unchanged at 0.8% of GDP in 2023, despite increased public spending.

  • Economic Monitor Armenia

    WA 11 | February 2024

    Last year, the Armenian economy grew by an impressive 8.7% in real terms, largely due to the influx of Russian emigrants. Forecasts for the current year range between 5 and 6.1%, although the integration of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh could again be a growth factor. Inflation, which had been well above the central bank’s target in previous years, fell to just -0.6% last year. This slightly deflationary trend, caused in part by tight monetary policy, is not expected to continue this year or next. The dram will remain stable against the US dollar, while a higher budget deficit and a sharp rise in goods imports and exports are also expected in 2023.

  • Economic Monitor Ukraine

    WA 19 | February 2023

    After a sharp decline in GDP in 2022, the economy experiences moderate growth of 5.2% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, mainly driven by rising consumption. Despite a current account deficit and growing trade deficits, foreign exchange reserves improve (2023: USD 40.5bn) and inflation falls to 5.1%. Nevertheless, massive budget deficits and rising public debt remain, making debt restructuring necessary, as well as a dependence on foreign financing. The new Black Sea corridor offers opportunities for exports, while regional disparities and labour market challenges due to migration require special attention.

  • Economic Monitor Moldova

    WA 19 | February 2024

    The Moldovan economy is showing signs of recovery following the recession in 2022. Economic growth of 2.0% is forecasted for 2023, driven by the agricultural sector. In 2024, growth could increase to 3.9%, due to rising private consumption.
    Despite a fall in the inflation rate to 4.2% by the end of 2023 and a lower budget deficit, challenges remain due to currency appreciation and a lack of growth stimulus.
    Trade with Ukraine has declined, while exports of services have increased. Trade relations with the EU, which focus on plums and pork, and a possible switch from USD to EUR as the reference currency could offer new economic opportunities.

  • Economic Monitor Georgia

    WA 18 | October 2023

    Economic growth in Georgia remains strong, but is slowly approaching long-term potential growth again. The boom, which was fueled in particular by the influx of Russian immigrants, is slowing down. The value of the lari against the US dollar stabilized last year after a strong appreciation in 2022, inflation is falling, monetary policy is slowly becoming looser and trade is developing strongly, particularly due to re-exports. The high budget deficit has been reduced. Not all the potential benefits of the DCFTA with the EU has been exploited already.