
Overwiew: economic situation in 2020
- GDP to drop by 1.5%; pre-COVID forecast: 5.5%
- Strong reduction of private consumption and investment counteracted by gov spending
- Budget deficit will amount to 5.0% of GDP, compared with pre-COVID plan of 2.3%
- Current account deficit at 8.6% of GDP, only slightly higher than pre-COVID 8.4%
- Strong decline in exports and remittances counterbalanced by large import contraction
- But: lower FDI and reversal of private capital inflows create problems for financing the current account deficit
- Augmentation of IMF stand by arrangement and immediate disbursement of USD 280 m key for financing both the budget and the current account deficit
- Rather stable exchange rate, after temporary depreciation by 5% in March 2020