19. Information meeting on June 17 and 18

On 17 and 18 June, the German Economic Team presented the Economic Outlooks for the partner countries to representatives of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. 

The Economic Outlooks contain a concise analysis of the macroeconomic and economic policy development in the GET partner countries. They are published on a bi-annual basis. 

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Economic Monitor Armenia – Issue 05 | June 2021

Overview

  • Prime Minister Pashinyan has stepped down, elections are scheduled for 20 June 2021
  • GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2021; mainly on the back of public expenditure
  • Relatively subdued growth outlook after twin shocks in 2020
  • Consumption to pick up again in 2021, investment likely to remain subdued
  • Budget deficit estimate: 5.4% of GDP in 2021; public debt to rise to 69% of GDP in 2021; fiscal consolidation in 2022 likely
  • Current account deficit estimated at 6.7% of GDP in 2021
  • Mixed performance of exports expected: rebound due to high metal prices, but slow return of tourists in 2021; imports to pick up again
  • Slow recovery of FDI due to political uncertainty after decline by more than half in 2020
  • Issuance of EUR 750 m Eurobond secures external sustainability for the time being
  • Depreciation of Dram amid high uncertainty throughout Q4-2020 and Q1-2021
  • Hikes in policy rate due to increased inflation, after multiple reductions in 2020
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Pandemic and German-Georgian Economic Relations

In cooperation with the Embassy of Georgia in Germany, the German Economic Team organized an event on “Pandemic and German-Georgian Economic Relations” on 10 May.

The opening and closing remarks were delivered by H.E. Prof. Dr. Levan Izoria (Ambassador of Georgia to Germany) and H.E. Hubert Knirsch (Ambassador of Germany to Georgia).

The keynote speeches were given by

  • Natia Turnava (Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia) and
  • Thomas Bareiß (Parliamentary State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy)

These speeches were followed by a panel discussion on the challenges and opportunities for trade and investment.

Moderation: Dr Ricardo Giucci, Team Leader, German Economic Team

  • Stefan Kägebein, Regional Director Eastern Europe, German Eastern Business Association
  • Tornike Zirakishvili, Deputy CEO, Enterprise Georgia
  • Giorgi Pertaia, President, Georgian Chamber of Commerce and Industry
  • Dr Sascha Ternes, Chairman, German Economic Association in Georgia
  • Björn Vogler, Consultant, German Economic Team

During the panel interesting discussions arose on Georgia’s perspectives after the Corona pandemic and the Germany’s supporting role in this regard.

More than 30 representatives from ministries, associations and companies participated in the online event.

Exchange on the strategy for the economic development of Donbass

On April, 28 2021, the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation (FES) Ukraine together with the NGO „Donbas Gates“ hosted a digital event on the economic development of the Donbass region which was moderated by Marcel Röthig, Resident Representative of FES Ukraine and Alvydas Medalinskas, Political Analyst, Mykolas Romeris University Vilnius and Deputy Chairman of NGO “Donbas Gates” (Mariupol).

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The forthcoming ACAA between the EU and Ukraine: What to expect – Online event on April 28

On April, 28, 2021, the German Economic Team together with the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting in Kyiv (IER) and in cooperation with the German-Ukrainian Chamber for Commerce and Industry (AHK Ukraine), the German Eastern Business Association (OA), the European Business Association (EBA), the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the International Council of Business Associations and Chambers in Ukraine organised a public event on the economic implications of the forthcoming ACAA (Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products) between the EU and Ukraine.

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Joint round table with the German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK Ukraine) on the topic of labor market flexibility

On April, 14 2021, the German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK Ukraine) hosted a digital meeting of the Legal and HR Committee, moderated by Alexander Markus, CEO of the AHK Ukraine. During the session, Mr David Saha, Consultant of the German Economic Team, presented the results of two studies focussing on firstly the labour market flexibility in Ukraine and secondly international experience of labour market instruments used to deal with the crisis.

Thereafter, Mr Saha and Mr Alexander Ließem, Consultant of the German Economic Team, discussed with almost 20 participating German and international Legal and HR experts opportunities to reform the Ukraine’s Labour Code and the establishment of a short-time work scheme for Ukraine during economic crises.

Link to the study for Ukraine

Link to the study on international experience  

Webinar on Economic outlook and challenges for monetary policy

On March, 25 2021, the German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK Ukraine) hosted a digital meeting of the Banking and Financial Services Committee, moderated by Bernd Wurth, Head of the Committee and CEO of Deutsche Bank DBU JSC. During the session, Robert Kirchner, Deputy Team Leader and Garry Poluschkin, Project Manager Ukraine of the German Economic Team presented the economic outlook for Ukraine for 2021 and challenges for monetary policy.

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Digital conference on investment study Uzbekistan

On March 16th 2021, the Investment Study Uzbekistan Conference was held, organised by the Delegation of German Business in Central Asia and the German Economic Team, with the support of the Delegation of German Business for Central Asia, the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations and the German-Uzbek Business Council. In total, 69 people took part. The keynote speeches were held by Dr. Andreas Nicolin, Sub-Department Head at the BMWi, and the Head of the Investment Climate Department at the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Aleksey Sim, who thanked the German Economic Team for its work.

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Presentation of economic outlook for five Eastern Partnership countries at EBA Moldova event

On March 16th 2021, the German Economic Team presented the economic outlook for five of the six Eastern Partnership countries – Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia and Armenia – at the invitation of the European Business Association in Moldova. A total of 18 high-ranking representatives of Moldovan companies and business associations, the European Union and international organisations took part in the event as speakers. In addition, the event was broadcast via livestream for the interested public.

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Press conference on economic development in Ukraine

On March, 10, 2021, the German Economic Team together with the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting in Kyiv, organised an online press-conference on our joint economic forecast for Ukraine for 2021 via Ukrinform, moderated by Veronika Movchan, Academic Director of the institute. After an introduction by Garry Poluschkin, Project Manager Ukraine, Vitaliy Kravchuk, Senior Research Fellow of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting presented our growth forecast, which we see at 4.3%. Besides, our forecast of fixed capital accumulation of 8.9% growth and inflation of 5.9% at the end of 2021 were discussed in the Q&A round with the more than 40 press members.

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Presentation of Economic Monitor Moldova to EU Representatives

On Friday, the German Economic Team presented the current economic outlook for Moldova. Representatives of the DGs Near, Trade and Economic and Financial Affairs of the EU Commission, the EU Delegation to Moldova, the Federal Foreign Office, as well as diplomatic representatives of EU Member States in Moldova took part in the online event.

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Policy Study 01/2021

Job-retention schemes and labour market adaptivity in the context of the Coronavirus crisis: Analysis and recommendations for Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Uzbekistan and Armenia

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Video conference with BaFin and NBG on cryptocurrencies

The National Bank of Georgia is currently intensively dealing with the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Against this background, the German Economic Team has therefore organized a video conference with BaFin to enable an exchange on the German experience. Two experts participated on behalf of BaFin and were available to answer questions.

The event was very positively received by the Georgian side. This was particularly evident from the high number of 15 participants, including the department heads for the development of financial and supervisory technologies as well as anti-money laundering. The large number of questions also showed a high level of interest in the event. The participants expressed their appreciation for the helpful exchange.

18. Information meeting on government advice – part 2

On the second day of the information meeting, the German Economic Team (GET) presented the current economic outlook for the partner countries Georgia, Armenia and Uzbekistan. The online-event was organised by the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). Representatives of the Economics Ministry, the Federal Chancellery (BK), the Federal Foreign Office (AA), the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), deputies of the German Bundestag, the German Ambassador to Georgia, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GiZ), Germany Trade and Invest (gtai), KfW, the Federation of German Industries (BDI), the German Eastern Business Association and the German Business Association Armenia took part. In total, the event had 60 participants.

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Economic Monitor Armenia – Issue 04 | Update March 2021

Overview

  • GDP to decline by 7.6% in 2020; twin shocks: COVID-19 and military confrontation
  • Slow recovery expected; GDP to stagnate in 2021, uncertainty stems from political instability
  • Investment likely to remain subdued in 2021, consumption may recover
  • Budget deficit estimate: 5.4% of GDP in 2020; public debt to rise to 69% of GDP in 2021
  • Current account deficit estimated at 6.0% in 2020; lower than 2019
  • Strong decline in exports (esp. tourism) counteracted by even larger import contraction
  • At the same time: FDI declined by almost half in 2020, expected to recover only slowly
  • Augmentation of IMF stand-by arrangement and disbursement of approx. USD 232 m key for financing the budget deficit in 2020
  • Rather stable exchange rate in 1H-2020, depreciation of Dram amid high uncertainty in Q3
  • After multiple reductions in 2020, hikes in policy rate in Dec-20/Jan-21 due to increased inflation
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18. Information meeting on government advice – part 1

On January 21st, the German Economic Team (GET) presented the economic monitors for Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine. The online-event, organised by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, was attended by a number of officials from the Economics Ministry, the Federal Foreign Office, other federal ministries, as well as development cooperation- and trade organisations, such as the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Germany Trade and Invest (gtai), the Chamber of Foreign Trade in Belarus and the German Eastern Business Association. In total, the event had 90 participants.

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Policy Study 03/2020

Improving the business Climate – Boosting Private Investment: Proposals from German and European business in Armenia

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Policy Study 01/2020

Monetary policy reaction to COVID-19 in CEE economies

Lessons from the use of conventional and unconventional instruments

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Policy Briefing 04/2020

Monetary policy reaction to COVID-19 in CEE economies

Lessons from the use of conventional and unconventional instruments: Summary of results

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Minsk-Forum: Opportunities and Challenges of the Belarussian Economy

On 3 December 2020 the German Eastern Business Association (OA) held a panel discussion on the state of the Belarussian economy as part of the Minsk Forum XVIII. The participants were Manfred Huterer, German Ambassador to Belarus, Alexandr Tschubrik, director of the IPM Research Center, Kateryna Bornukova, economist at the Belarussian Research and Outreach Center, Jaugenij Labanau, Director of the Center for Environmental Solutions, Jeroen Williams, Deputy Head of the EEA Unit at DG Near of the EU Commission, as well as Robert Kirchner, Deputy Team Leader of the German Economic Team.

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Advanced training webinar for Ukrainian officials

On October 18th, 2020, the German Economic Team took part in an advanced training seminar for high-level Ukrainian officials from the Ministries of Infrastructure, Economic Development and Digital Transformation organised by GIZ and the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The event, which was carried out in the form of a webinar, was moderated by Dr. Erik Malchow, an expert in intercultural communications, on behalf of GIZ.

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Online Briefing: Economic cooperation between the EU and associated countries

On November 23rd, LibMOD conducted an online briefing on the policy paper “Economic cooperation between the EU and associated countries”. Renowned experts on Eastern Europe commented on the paper written by Dr. Julia Langbein, who investigated the economic relationship between the EaP-countries and the European Union, particularly with hindsight to DCFTAs.

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20th Ukrainian Breakfast Debate: Economic Consequences for Foreign Investment and Local Businesses

As part of IEPBreakfast Debate Series, the Institut für Europäische Politik Berlin (IEP) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Kyiv organised an online event on the consequences of COVID-19 for the Ukrainian economy. In total, 26 participants attended the online session. After the introductory remarks by Dr. Katrin Böttger, Director at IEP Berlin, Ljudmyla Melnyk, IEP Research Associate, handed over to the speakers.

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Online discussion on banking sector Ukraine

Together with the Centre for Economic Strategy and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, the German Economic Team organised a webinar on the Ukrainian banking sector, moderated by Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the Centre for Economic Strategy. After an introduction by Robert Kirchner, Deputy Team Leader of the German Economic Team and the keynot speech by Kataryna Rozhkova, First Vice-Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Vitaliy Kravchuk, Senior Research Fellow of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and Garry Poluschkin, Project Manager Ukraine, presented the current Banking Sector Monitor, which focuses on the current situation, the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and new regulatory frameworks.

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Video conference with BaFin and the NBG about fintech


The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) is currently very interested in the topic of fintech. In order to give the responsible employees the opportunity to discuss regulatory experiences in Germany on the topics of open banking and regulatory sandbox, the German Economic Team has therefore organized a video conference with BaFin (Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority). On the side of BaFin, two experts in the fields of financial technology innovation topics and regulatory requirements for IT security in payment transactions (especially PSD2) took part.

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Presentation of economic outlook to German companies in Ukraine

The German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce invited to the digital presentation of the economic outlook for Ukraine. The current macroeconomic situation, the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the support by international financial institutions were discussed by Peter Ziegler, Head of the Economic Department of the German Embassy in Kyiv, Robert Kirchner, Deputy Team Leader of the German Economic Team and Garry Poluschkin, Project Manager for Ukraine of the German Economic Team.

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Presentation of the 3rd issue of the Economic Monitor Armenia

On August 4th, Dr. Ricardo Giucci, Team Leader, and Nikolas Schmidt, Project Manager of the German Economic Team Armenia, presented the third Economic Monitor in a video conference. The event was organised in cooperation with the German Business Association (DWV) in Armenia. Numerous German and European businesspeople, representatives from the EU Delegation and from the European Business Association (EBA) took part in the event.

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17. Information meeting on high-level government advice

The biannual information meeting on high-level government advice in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Uzbekistan and Armenia was held – divided into two blocks – on 18 and 24 June, with the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). The event was opened by Andreas Nicolin, Deputy Head of Department and moderated by Yildiz Götze, Head of Division.

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Measures of the German Federal Government to support business during the Corona crisis

Webinar on May 15th

On May 15th, Dr. Ricardo Giucci, Team Leader and Robert Kirchner, Deputy Team Leader of the German Economic Team (GET) participated in the online event on “Measures of the German Federal Government to support business during the Corona crisis”. The webinar was organised by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES). In his study, which was prepared together with Woldemar Walter, Consultant in the German Economic Team, Dr. Giucci and Mr. Kirchner presented the German measures to support companies and freelancers and underlined that such a policy would enable a quick recovery of the economy. Hlib Vyshlinsky, Executive Director of CES, presented the Ukrainian measures.

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Webinar on “Economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Ukraine”

On May 13, Robert Kirchner, Deputy Team Leader, David Saha, Consultant and Garry Poluschkin, Project Manager for Ukraine in the German Economic Team (GET), together with Veronika Movchan and Vitaliy Kravchuk from the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) presented their jointly prepared study at an online event on the topic “Economic Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Ukraine”. The event was organized and moderated by the Kyiv School of Economics.

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“Economic impact of the Corona pandemic for Ukraine“ – Participation in live conversation by LibMod

On April 1, David Saha, consultant in the German Economic Team (GET), gave a presentation at online event on the topic “Economic impact of the Corona pandemic for Ukraine”. The event was organized by the think tank “LibMod – Zentrum für Liberale Moderne” and moderated by Mattia Nelles, initiator of “Understanding Ukraine”. The other speakers were Tymofiy Mylovanov, former Ukrainian Minister for Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture and Valerij Pekar, entrepreneur and co-founder of the civil platform The New Country.

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Workshop on energy market regulation 26.03-28.03.

The German Economic Team (GET) and the Ukrainian NGO DiXi jointly conducted a three-day workshop on EU energy market regulation policy. Although the workshop could not take place in Kyiv as planned due to travel restrictions, all participants were invited via video conference. Energy experts and lecturers from the European University Institute of Florence, School of Regulation gave presentations.

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Macroeconomic consequences of the Corona crisis – Joint meeting of OAOEV Working Groups Ukraine, Belarus and South Caucasus

On the occasion of the joint video conference of OAOEV Working Groups Ukraine, Belarus and South Caucasus on March 26, 2020, Ricardo Giucci presented an overview of the macroeconomic consequences of the corona crisis for the region.

A massive decline in GDP and devaluations of the local currencies are expected, which will also have a negative impact on German exports, said Giucci. External financial support, e.g. from the IMF is required. He warned that the countries do not have the administrative and institutional prerequisites for possible instruments such as loans and grants to companies.

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Interview with David Saha on economic consequences of the Corona crisis in Ukraine

Interview by Deutsche Welle, published on 18.03.2020 on dw.com/uk

Ukraine loses access to international capital markets as a result of the Corona crisis

The Covid 19 pandemic has cut off Ukraine from the capital markets, says David Saha, an expert from the German Economic Team, in a conversation with DW. He advises to meet the IMF’s demands, which are painful for the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. The German Economic Team in Berlin has been advising the Ukrainian government on economic reforms and macroeconomic stability for many years. In an interview with DW, expert David Saha shared his view on the risks for the Ukrainian economy due to the Covid 19 pandemic.

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Business Stammtisch of the German Embassy on 04.02.

David Saha, Consultant at the German Economic Team (GET), presented the current economic outlook for Ukraine at the Business Stammtisch of the German Embassy on 4th of February. The main topic of the event was on the macroeconomic situation, the strong appreciation of the hryvnia in 2019 and the remaining challenges, such as the completion of the IMF programme. The event was moderated by Andreas Otto, First Secretary in the Economic Department of the German Embassy.

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16th Information meeting on high-level government consultation

The German Economic Team (GET) presented the current economic outlook to interested representatives of ministries and institutions on January 24th in the premises of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy (BMWi) and spoke about current developments in the partner countries Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and about the activities of the German Economic Team in Armenia.

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Press release 09.07.2019

Free trade agreements (DCFTA) with the European Union show positive effects on Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – major differences between countries

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