Economic Monitor Armenia – Issue 05 | June 2021

Overview

  • Prime Minister Pashinyan has stepped down, elections are scheduled for 20 June 2021
  • GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2021; mainly on the back of public expenditure
  • Relatively subdued growth outlook after twin shocks in 2020
  • Consumption to pick up again in 2021, investment likely to remain subdued
  • Budget deficit estimate: 5.4% of GDP in 2021; public debt to rise to 69% of GDP in 2021; fiscal consolidation in 2022 likely
  • Current account deficit estimated at 6.7% of GDP in 2021
  • Mixed performance of exports expected: rebound due to high metal prices, but slow return of tourists in 2021; imports to pick up again
  • Slow recovery of FDI due to political uncertainty after decline by more than half in 2020
  • Issuance of EUR 750 m Eurobond secures external sustainability for the time being
  • Depreciation of Dram amid high uncertainty throughout Q4-2020 and Q1-2021
  • Hikes in policy rate due to increased inflation, after multiple reductions in 2020

Special topics

  • Business climate. Proposals in cooperation with German and European business
  • GDP forecast. GET macro model and investment modelling
  • COVID-19. Latest data
Download Economic Monitor 05/2021