Economic Monitor Armenia – Issue 04 | Update March 2021

Overview

  • GDP to decline by 7.6% in 2020; twin shocks: COVID-19 and military confrontation
  • Slow recovery expected; GDP to stagnate in 2021, uncertainty stems from political instability
  • Investment likely to remain subdued in 2021, consumption may recover
  • Budget deficit estimate: 5.4% of GDP in 2020; public debt to rise to 69% of GDP in 2021
  • Current account deficit estimated at 6.0% in 2020; lower than 2019
  • Strong decline in exports (esp. tourism) counteracted by even larger import contraction
  • At the same time: FDI declined by almost half in 2020, expected to recover only slowly
  • Augmentation of IMF stand-by arrangement and disbursement of approx. USD 232 m key for financing the budget deficit in 2020
  • Rather stable exchange rate in 1H-2020, depreciation of Dram amid high uncertainty in Q3
  • After multiple reductions in 2020, hikes in policy rate in Dec-20/Jan-21 due to increased inflation

Special topics

  • Trade with the EU. Negative impact of the GSP+ graduation on textile exports
  • Regional trade. Ban on Turkish imports
  • COVID-19. Latest data and measures of the government
  • Business climate. Proposals in cooperation with German and European business
Download Economic Monitor Armenia 04/2021