Economic Monitor Armenia – Issue 02 | January 2020

Overview

  • Economic growth at ca. 7.0% in 2019, significantly higher than expected
  • Main driver was private consumption, on the back of robust retail lending
  • Investment activity declined in 2019, with negative implications on mid term growth
  • GDP is forecast to grow by 4.9% in 2020

» Strong economic growth, but weak investment is an issue

  • Low budget deficit at 1.5% of GDP in 2019
  • Reasons: high revenues, but also under execution of capital expenditures

» Fiscal stability positive, but low public investment is an issue

  • Inflation in 2019 at 0.7%; low inflation key ingredient of macroeconomic stability
  • Wide current account deficit at ca. 8.0% of GDP in 2019, partly due to special factor
  • Weak FDI inflows (0.7% of GDP) in 9M2019, too little for financing current account deficit

» FDI attraction remains a key issue

Special topics

  • Export potential of the agro food sector. Opportunities for various goods
  • Increase of minimum wage by 24%. Economic implications
  • Effectiveness of free economic zones. Recommendations for reform
  • Armenia, the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union. Implications for free trade with EU
Download Economic Monitor Armenia - Issue 02 | January 2020