Belarus

Due to Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Western sanctions, Belarus experienced in 2022 the worst recession since the 1990s. The negative effects are strongly felt from a sectoral perspective, with the trade, transport and logistics sector as well as the ICT sector being hit extremely hard. Although governmental price controls allowed for containing inflation in the short term, significant risks remain in this area. With declining revenues, reduced access to international credits and default confirmed by international rating agencies, considerable problems with public finances are apparent, despite the lack of data. GET forecasts a further decline in economic output of 0.4% this year and expects growth of 3.4% next year. The main drivers of growth in the coming year will be positive net exports – due to an advancing reorientation of exports – and recovering domestic consumer demand.