Wirtschaftsausblick Armenien – Ausgabe 01 | Oktober 2019

Overview

  • Economic growth in Q1 19 (7.2%) and Q2 19 (6.5%) significantly higher than expected
  • Budget surplus in 7M2019 due to high revenues & under execution of capital expenditures
  • Inflation forecast for 2019 at 2.1%; low inflation key ingredient of macroeconomic stability

» Stable macroeconomic situation

  • Significant jump of current account deficit in 2018 to 9.4% of GDP; quite high
  • FDI only at 2.1% in 2018, not sufficient for financing the current account deficit
  • Imports (+21.4%) increased much stronger than exports (+7.8%) in 2018

» Export promotion and FDI attraction key for external stability

  • Mid term fiscal consolidation: budget deficit ≈ 2% and central gov debt < 50% of GDP
  • At the same time: lower tax rates and higher expenditures on social & investment planned

» Ambitious mid term fiscal plans

Special topics

  • Recent political events
  • Fight against corruption
  • Energy: challenges and government plans
  • FDI attraction: focus on most promising target groups and institutional framework
Wirtschaftsausblick Armenien - Ausgabe 01 | Oktober 2019 (Englisch) herunterladen